CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-14 05:59:00Z 
Radial velocity (km/s): 328 km/s
Longitude (deg): 6°
Latitude (deg): 12°
Half-angular width (deg): 31°

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2021 May 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2822 (N16W35, Cao/beta) continued to
decay and Region 2823 (S23W25, Axx/alpha) has almost become plage. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Very low solar activity is expected, with a slight chance for C-class
flares, on 16-18 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels over 16-18 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
slight enhancement early in the reporting period. Total magnetic field
strength reached a brief peak of 10 nT before settling near 3 nT. Bz was
+/- 4 during the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged
near 425 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards background levels
through 16 May. Enhanced conditions are expected due to influence from a
negative polarity CH HSS on 17 May. On 18 May, the anticipated arrival
of a CME from 13 May is expected to enhance conditions even further.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels,
with isolated unsettled conditions, on 16 May. On 17 May, increase to
unsettled levels are likely, with isolated active periods, in response
to coronal hole influence. Mostly unsettled to active periods, with
isolated G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 18 May due to the
arrival of a CME from 13 May.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2021 May 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 16-May 18 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 16-May 18 2021

            May 16     May 17     May 18
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        1          2          3     
06-09UT        1          1          2     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        1          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          4     
21-00UT        2          4          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 May
due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021

              May 16  May 17  May 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 16-May 18 2021

              May 16        May 17        May 18
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Submission time and prediction arrival taken from the simulation at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement